The CA Newsletter is back! This is something I have been considering for a while. Q1 hasn’t been the best quarter for relative value trades the past few years, so I wanted to wait until Q2. Normally, I would have sent this Monday, but it’s April 1 tomorrow and I didn’t want everyone thinking it was a joke!
Writing will help me organize my thoughts and force me to more systematically review my trades. With the dominant algos keeping the yield curve in line, I am less concerned than in the past about distorting the curve by sharing my trade ideas. I may discuss this in a future post.
Have no fear – nothing will change for free subscribers! I will still give out the same great monthly content as before at no charge! I am just adding some additional write-ups for people who want more.
SUBSTACK PUBLICATIONS
Here are the two alternatives I am offering via Substack:
1. FREE MONTHLY
(general)
I enjoy sharing my big-picture thoughts on trading and the markets, and I see no reason not to continue writing free articles for curious observers.
Planned future posts include:
The factors people tend to overlook when trading around economic data.
C’mon Man! Common market narratives that make no sense.
The Fed and Election conjectures.
Continuation of How to Listen series.
2. CA MACRO WEEKLY
(directional)
Interest rates are a key driver of many markets. Even if you don’t primarily trade interest rates, keeping abreast of developments in the yield curve will be useful in most markets. Not many people trade STIR relative value (slope, curvature and other relative value), so if you just want a macro overview from a STIR trading perspective, this is for you. This may seem ironic since I implied in my last post that trading direction could be fool’s gold. However, there is a lot one can say about the market conditions, other than the balance of risks on short-term direction.
This weekly piece will give my observations of the previous week and things I am thinking for the upcoming week(s).
Potential topics for discussion in upcoming issues include:
Price action last week. It was clear people piled into flatteners going into PCE. Now that we had a fractionally soft print, this could lead to a market rebalance before we look forward to ISM and Payrolls.
My focus next week. The balance of risks going into Payrolls.
The asymmetry of potential directional moves in reaction to inflation and growth data.
I like to occasionally look forward at the path of inflation rolloffs.
There has been a scramble to price in a slow and systematic easing cycle. Vol has gotten crushed for the rest of 2024. I’m not sure about timing but the tails are starting to look cheap.
Most weeks, I will include a “Value on the Curve” section discussing a macro trade theme that seems interesting.
I may mention any podcasts I thought were exceptional that week.
The cost will be $159 a month, or $1,590 per year. Most traders only need one good idea or thought a YEAR to make money on the subscription!
Sign up for a free 1 week trial plus the previous issue, for two combined weeks.
INSTITUTIONAL SERVICES
I don’t think Substack is the right platform for the institutional services I used to provide. What I would ideally like to do is have a broadcast chat, but many institutions frown on chats on the trading floor. For now, I will go with a direct email distribution. Let me know at ca@curveadvisor.com if you are interested in any of the following:
CA RV WEEKLY
(slope, curvature and other relative value)
This will be a weekly piece that discusses all of the detailed thoughts I have on the markets and specific trades to capitalize on asymetric opportunities.
Includes a subscription to the CA Macro Weekly.
This will include more specific trade ideas and themes. I typically have over a handful of unique trade ideas on all parts of the yield curve.
The markets sometimes move quickly, so I anticipate that there will be an occasional mid-week update if there is an important development, if a new opportunity arises or if an existing trade is affected.
Most of the focus will be in the US, with an occasional comment about the EU, UK and Canada.
Future posts of interest to advanced STIR traders include:
Yield Curve Algos affecting the curve.
Why SR3M4 is highly pinnable (with the correct view). I mentioned this late last year, and it is coming to fruition.
The asymmetry of potential curve moves in reaction to inflation and growth data.
Using options to trade year spreads.
The relationship between various quarterly and nonquarterly meetings.
The cost will be $1,799 a month or $17,999 a year. This roughly what I used to charge 5-10 years ago. I am no longer writing daily, but the content will be 90% similar. Let’s not forget there has been an inflation surge since the last time I wrote. For an institutional trader, the breakeven on this subscription is also less than one good idea a YEAR!
There is no trial, but I am happy to send you a couple of back issues upon request, at ca@curveadvisor.com.
I used to offer a (50+%) discounted delayed subscription. I am open to this if there is enough interest.
Let me know if you would like to arrange for deep discounts for multiple users at the same firm.
BESPOKE SERVICES
I am open to providing additional services as needed. Contact me at ca@curveadvisor.com if your firm would like additional services than were mentioned.
FINE PRINT
The inaugural issues will be out on Tuesday, April 2, 2024.
These are generally going to be 1 page weekly write-ups. I prefer to be concise and direct.
As always, I am happy to refund a prorated balance if you are unsatisfied at any time. I believe in what I have to offer and do not want you to pay if the product does not meet your expectations.
I try to under-promise and over-deliver. I may take up to 4 weeks a year off from writing. However, I project that I will write more than promised via inter-week updates. I will refund a prorated balance if there is an unexpected development where I write less than expected.
I reserve the right to cancel and refund any subscription at any time with no reason given. I need to maintain distributional integrity.
Note that this is not investment advice, you can lose money, I could be a contrarian indicator, all that glitters isn't gold, haste makes waste, and any other saying that may denote the non-seriousness of this post.
Happy trading!
LOL. I sent this March 31 at 10PM CST and the post has a April 1 date. The Substack server must be in Europe.